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San Francisco Gets it January Housing Bump

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An estimated 43,964 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 7.3% from 40,965 in May, and down 0.5% from 44,167 for June 2009, according to MDA DataQuick.

California sales for the month of June have varied from a low of 35,202 in 2008 to a peak of 76,669 in 2004, while the average is 50,405. MDA DataQuick’s statistics go back to 1988.

The median price paid for a home last month was $270,000, down 2.9% from $278,000 in May, and up 9.8% from $246,000 for June a year ago. The year-over-year increase was the eighth in a row, following 27 months of year-over-year decline. The bottom of the current cycle was $221,000 in April 2009, the peak was at $484,000 in early 2007.

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The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed the San Francisco area – which it defines as the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa – up 16.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with the same quarter in 2009.

Other California areas also showed recovery, with San Diego up 10.8 percent and Los Angeles up 6 percent.

“San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles went way up and came way down, so to some extent this is a rebound from the bottom,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s, which publishes the index.

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Los Angeles posted almost a 1% gain and San Diego posted a .4% gain in month month gains in January on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Other cities with year-over-year gains include San Francisco, Las Vegas.

A separate report, released this month by data and analytics company Radar Logic, found that the price per square foot of homes rose in eight of 25 U.S. markets tracked in January compared to the same month a year earlier.

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“This is the first time in almost three years that we’ve seen price increases,” says Yale University professor Robert Shiller, who helped design the home price index. “So when we see a break in the downward trend that’s definitely encouraging news.”
“Well, I think the worst is probably behind us — the worst pace of decline,” he says. “We were going down at 2 percent a month for a number of months in a row nationally. That was really something. Now home prices relative to rents or construction costs are back at normal levels.”

Many Realtors are seeing multiple offers making some speculate that we have reached a housing bottom.

“Well, I think it very much depends on what city you’re in,” says William Wheaton, a housing economist at MIT. “There are really two types of markets right now.”

Wheaton notes that in states with 50% drops like Arizona, California and Florida that indeed we may be at a bottom.

“If you’re in a market like California, where prices have fallen 50 percent and transactions have picked up and you ask your friendly professor ‘Is this the bottom?’ I would say pretty much so,” Wheaton says.” If you could buy a house [for] 50 percent of what you could a few years ago, I’d say go ahead and buy it.”

Source: NPR

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