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October pending home sales bounced 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors Midwest, up 24 percent.

The Northeast also saw sizeable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.

The boune more than recovered the loss through declines over the past three months. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced a 10.4% increase in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) in October, rising to 93.3. This follows a decrease of 4.6% in September and modest declines in July.

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2% to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1% below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NARs chief economist, cautioned that there would be a long recovery process. “Home sales will remain soft in the months ahead, but improved affordability conditions should help with a recovery,” he said. “But the recovery looks to be a long process. Home buyers over the past year got a great deal, and buyers for the balance of this year have an edge over sellers. For those who bought at or near the peak several years ago, particularly in markets experiencing big bubbles, it may take over a decade to fully recover lost equity.”

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According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales increased  in March. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3 percent to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1 percent above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3 percent increase in February.

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The index is understood to be a forward indicator of home sales trends since it measures contracts signed, not completed sales. The up-tick may indicate that home prices have fallen low enough for buyers to get off the fence.
Feeling for the bottom

Anecdotal evidence indicates that trend may be happening. Realtors and other industry insiders are seeing rising open house attendance and multiple bids on some particularly desirable properties. Plus, pricing has become sharper, according to Sherry Chris, the CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate.

Today, buyers are more likely to bid because they perceive the market as at or near its bottom. An April Gallup Poll reported that 71% of Americans thought it was a good time to buy a house.

The South saw the largest gain of any region, with pending home sales jumping 8.5%. Pending sales are 7.7% higher there compared with a year ago.

The Midwest gained 3.9% from February and 1.7% year-over-year. Northeast sales fell 5.7% and are off 24.1% compared with March 2008. The West dropped 1% for the month but are up 8.2% year-over-year.

Low home prices continued to help to drive sales, although NAR’s affordability index actually fell 2.3% from February, when it hit a historic high. This index is based on family income, home prices and mortgage rates.

“Compared to a year ago, the typical family can pay much less in mortgage costs for the same home, or buy a better home without necessarily increasing their monthly payment,” said NAR President Charles McMillan, in a prepared statement. “For buyers who’ve been on the sidelines and have good jobs, the market has never looked more favorable

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