Existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors(R). Also released today were periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners.

Although rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month’s supply.

Related articles

• Huntsville November Real Estate Sales(tbrander.wordpress.com)

  Home sales rise in Manatee
  By JOSH SALMAN – jsalman@bradenton.com The Bradenton-Sarasota market recorded 816 existing home sales last month, a modest 2 percent jump from October and 17 percent increase from the same time last year, according to figures released Wednesday by …
  www.bradenton.com

  NWI home sales begin to march upward
  Existing single-family home sales in Northwest Indiana increased 19.6 percent in November compared with one year ago, marking the fifth straight month of higher sales in the region, according to data from the Greater Northwest Indiana Association of …
  www.nwitimes.com

  Home sales rising. Is a new wave of home investors forming?
  Existing home sales rise in November and are now 34 percent higher than the mid-2010 low. Low prices and interest rates are drawing some new investors to real estate. By Margaret Price, Correspondent / December 21, 2011 This photo taken Tuesday shows a …
  www.csmonitor.com

  Miami Real Estate Sales Continue Winning Streak in November, Prices Rise …
  “Residential real estate sales have consistently risen in Miami-Dade since August 2008,” said Jack H. Levine, 2011 Chairman of the Board of the Miami Association of Realtors. “Now, after the relatively rapid absorption of excess housing inventory, …
  www.worldpropertychannel.com

  Rise in home building suggests industry turnaround
  Short sales occur when lenders allow homes to be sold for less than what’s owed on the mortgage. Few homes are selling. After previous recessions, housing accounted for at least 15 percent of US economic growth. Since the recession officially ended in …
  www.foxnews.com

  

The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales(1), which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2 percent above the 3.94 million-unit pace in November 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more people are taking advantage of the buyer’s market. “Sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34 percent above the cyclical low point in mid-2010 — a genuine sustained sales recovery appears to be developing,” he said. “We’ve seen healthy gains in contract activity, so it looks like more people are realizing the great opportunity that exists in today’s market for buyers with long-term plans.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.99 percent in November from 4.07 percent in October; the rate was 4.30 percent in November 2010; records date back to 1971.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said housing affordability conditions have set a new record high. “With record low mortgage interest rates and bargain home prices, NAR’s housing affordability index shows that a median-income family can easily afford a median-priced home,” he said.

“With consumer price inflation rising by more than 3 percent this year, consumers are looking to lock-in steady payments by taking out long-term fixed-rate mortgages. However, the problem remains that some financially qualified families who are willing to stay well within their means are being denied the opportunity to buy in today’s market by the overly restrictive mortgage underwriting situation,” Veissi said.

An elevated level of contract failures continues to hold back a broader sales recovery. Contract failures(2) were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in November, unchanged from October but notably above a year ago when it was 9 percent.

Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including lower conforming mortgage loan limits, home inspections and employment losses.

Also released today are benchmark revisions(3) to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.

“From a consumer’s perspective, only the local market information matters and there are no changes to local multiple listing service (MLS) data or local supply-and-demand balance, or to local home prices,” Yun explained.

A divergence developed over time between sales reported by MLSs and sales determined by a U.S. Census benchmark; the variance began in 2007. Reasons include growth in MLS coverage areas from which sales data is collected, and geographic population shifts. “It appears that about half of the revisions result solely from a decline in for-sale-by-owners (FSBOs), with more sellers turning to Realtors(R) to market their homes when the market softened. The FSBO market was overwhelmed during the housing downturn, and since most FSBOs are not reported in MLSs, national estimates of existing-home sales began to diverge based on previous assumptions,” Yun said.

NAR consumer survey data in 2000 showed FSBOs accounted for a 16 percent market share, which fell to a record low 9 percent in 2010.

“In essence, Realtors(R) began to capture a greater market share. In addition to a decline in FSBO transactions, more builders began marketing new properties through real estate brokers that weren’t completely filtered from the existing-home data,” Yun said. “Some property listings on more than one MLS, and issues related to house flipping, also contributed to the downward revisions.” The new independent benchmark was discussed with government agencies and outside housing market experts, and will allow for annual revisions in the future.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 5.8 percent to 2.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply(4) at the current sales pace, down from a 7.7-month supply in October. “Since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, inventories have trended down and supplies are moving close to price stabilization levels,” Yun said.

The national median existing-home price(5) for all housing types was $164,200 in November, down 3.5 percent from a year ago. Distressed homes — foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts — accounted for 29 percent of sales in November (19 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), compared with 28 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 28 percent of purchases in November; they were 29 percent in October and 31 percent in November 2010. Investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 19 percent of homes in November, little changed from 18 percent in October and 19 percent in November 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 35 percent of transactions in November, up from 34 percent in October and 32 percent in November 2010.

Single-family home sales rose 4.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million in November from 3.78 million in October, and are 12.9 percent above the 3.50 million-unit level in November 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $164,100 in November, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 in November and are 6.8 percent higher than the 440,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price(6) was $164,600 in November, which is 0.2 percent below November 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 9.8 percent to an annual pace of 560,000 in November and are 7.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,200, which is 0.1 percent below November 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 4.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000 and are 15.7 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $133,400, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in November and are 12.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $143,300, which is 2.1 percent below November 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 3.6 percent to an annual level of 1.16 million in November and are 11.5 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the West was $195,300, down 8.4 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors(R), “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

NOTE: NAR also tracks monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for select metropolitan statistical areas, which is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata . For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors(R).

(1)Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample — more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month — and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

(2) Contract failures, all-cash transactions, investors, first-time buyers, and distressed sales are from a monthly survey for the Realtors(R) Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.

(3)Periodic benchmark revisions have been made to historic data back through 2007. Although there are downward revisions for total sales, there is little change to previously reported monthly comparisons or characterizations based on percentage change. There are comparable downward revisions to unsold inventory, so there is no change to relative month’s supply. Also, there is no change to median home prices.

A divergence in sales projections developed over time between the fixed model for calculating annualized sales rates and the actual marketplace, including a decline in for-sale-by-owner transactions, growth in multiple listing service coverage areas, geographic population shifts, some new-home sales trickling into MLS data and some individual sales being recorded in more than one MLS. Divergence of the data with other housing data metrics began in 2007.

NAR began to capture a larger share of actual transactions than was assumed in the calculation model based on the 2000 Census; resolving these issues has taking longer than anticipated in the absence of decennial data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which are no longer collected. Other major statistical series such as Gross Domestic Product and employment figures go through comparable periodic benchmark revisions to produce the most accurate data possible; the new benchmark process will permit annual revisions.

NAR began its normally scheduled process for benchmarking sales at the beginning of 2011 in consultation with outside housing market experts. Data for the new benchmark was discussed with representatives of organizations including the Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Treasury, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, CoreLogic, etc.; and some individual economists.

The data and background are posted at http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehs_benchmarking .

(4)Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, condos were measured quarterly while single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions).

(5)The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

(6)Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price often is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

The Pending Home Sales Index for November will be released December 29, and existing-home sales for December is scheduled for January 20; release times are 10:00 a.m. EST.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org . This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

More related Positive News

• Home Sales on the Upswing
• Existing-home sales Rocket Up 12.3% in December
• Ending the Year Positively
• Pending Home Sales Up
• February Numbers Pleasantly Surprise

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

October pending home sales bounced 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors Midwest, up 24 percent.

The Northeast also saw sizeable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.

The boune more than recovered the loss through declines over the past three months. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced a 10.4% increase in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) in October, rising to 93.3. This follows a decrease of 4.6% in September and modest declines in July.

Housing starts will probably reach a three-year high of 739,000 in 2010, creating about 500,000 jobs and helping trim the unemployment rate to 9.1 percent, said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview with Bloomberg.

“This is an ugly economic cycle,” he said. “We need job creation to get people comfortable with buying a home. If they do that, we’ll create jobs that will reinforce that home buying and fuel additional job growth.”

The CEO of luxury home builder Toll Brothers is optimistic. “The recovery is here to stay,” said Douglas Yearley. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”

At Fortune.com Billionaire Warren Buffet is among those who believe this is a sign the slump is about to end. Buffet writes: “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits.”

Pending home sales rose again in November, with the broad trend over the past five months indicating a gradual recovery into 2011, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® .

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. The index is 5.0 percent below a reading of 97.0 in November 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. “In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market,” he said. “But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity.”

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• Homebuilder Confidence Rises for First Time in Months
• Pending Home Sales Up
• Home Sales on the Upswing
• February Numbers Pleasantly Surprise

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• October Homes Sales Jump
• Ending the Year Positively
• Pending Home Sales UP Again
• Pending Home Sales Up

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 4.3 percent to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1 percent below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the latest data is consistent with a gradual improvement in home sales in upcoming months.

“Attractive affordability conditions from very low mortgage interest rates appear to be bringing buyers back to the market,” he said. “However, the pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.”

Although Yun expects a continuing steady rise in home sales from favorable affordability conditions and some job creation, he cautioned any sudden rise in mortgage rates could slow the recovery.

“Current low consumer price inflation has helped keep mortgage interest rates very attractive this year. However, recent rising trends in producer prices at the intermediate and early stages of production, along with very high commodity prices, are raising concerns about future inflation and future mortgage interest rates,” he said. “Higher inflation would mean higher mortgage interest rates. In the meantime, housing affordability is hovering near record highs.”

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• October Homes Sales Jump
• Ending the Year Positively
• National Association of Realtors Pending Sales Upin October MOM
• Pending Home Sales Up

The Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2% to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1% below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NARs chief economist, cautioned that there would be a long recovery process. “Home sales will remain soft in the months ahead, but improved affordability conditions should help with a recovery,” he said. “But the recovery looks to be a long process. Home buyers over the past year got a great deal, and buyers for the balance of this year have an edge over sellers. For those who bought at or near the peak several years ago, particularly in markets experiencing big bubbles, it may take over a decade to fully recover lost equity.”

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• October Homes Sales Jump
• Ending the Year Positively
• Home Sales on the Upswing
• Pending Home Sale Up in March

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• February Numbers Pleasantly Surprise
• Existing-home sales Rocket Up 12.3% in December
• Ending the Year Positively
• Pending Home Sales Up

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said Monday that “the early stages of a second surge of home sales.” adding that ,”we need a second surge to meaningfully draw down inventory and definitively stabilize home values”.  Sales rose 8.2 percent in February, the National Association of Realtors said.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing barometer gave the highest rise in three years, rising to 55.4 in March, up from 53 in February. Much of the momentum came from a surge in new orders and business activity.

More related Positive News

• Home Sales on the Upswing
• Home Sales Up
• Ending the Year Positively
• Pending Home Sales Up
• Pending Home Sales Rise Biggest Since 2001

“Things are much better,” Lawrence Yun said to applause at the organization’s annual convention in San Diego, attended by an estimated 20,000 delegates. ..We’re seeing price stabilization on a month-to-month basis..We will be set for a durable economic recovery,” he said. “

Yun cited low interest rates, improved affordability among would-be home buyers and increased sales activity, primarily for starter homes.

Additional reasons for his optimism:

• $8,000 tax credits to first-time buyers
• 16 million renter households making enough money to qualify to buy homes, demand should remain strong next year and restore confidence among all would-be buyers and households in general
• The pool of first-time buyers is 5 million more than in 2000 representing pent-up demand, Yun said.

Yun predicts that if the credit continues to have the same impact on demand in 2010, overall house prices might rise 4 percent next year, after falling 12.9 percent this year

• home resales could increase by 800,000 above this year’s 5 million mark
• while new-home sales could rise as well
• Yun also forecast that Realtor incomes will go up 20 percent next year.

More related Positive News

• Pending Home Sales Rise Biggest Since 2001
• Home Sales Up
• October Homes Sales Jump
• Ending the Year Positively
• National Association of Realtors Pending Sales Upin October MOM

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7%, to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2% above April 2008, when it was 87.5, the group said. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters (TRI) had expected the index would edge up to 85 from a reading of 84.6 in March. It was the biggest monthly jump since October 2001.

Pending home sales activity was greatest in the Northeast, where the index increased 32.6%, to 78.9, in April, 0.8% above a year ago. The only region that showed a decrease was the South, where the index declined 0.2%, to 93.0, 3.5% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8%, to 90.4, and is 11.1% above April 2008. In the West the index rose 1.8%, to 94.8, but is 2.9% below a year ago.

NAR’s Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions, and while the total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve, there will be sharp local variations. “The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline,” Yun said in a news release.

Typically there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a done deal, so the index is a barometer for future existing-home sales.

Paul Dales, U.S. economist for Capital Economics in Toronto, said i

“The pending home sales index has now improved for three months in a row, adding to the evidence that housing activity is finding a floor,” Dales wrote. Nevertheless, even if existing-home sales were to rise to 5.1 million, they would still be 30% below their peak. Accordingly, even if activity is finding a floor, it is at staggeringly low levels.”

More related Positive News

• Home Sales Up
• Ending the Year Positively
• Pending Home Sales Up
• Home Sales on the Upswing
• February Numbers Pleasantly Surprise